On January 13, the UK government carefully observed the Presidential elections held in Taiwan. Although some 19.5 million Taiwanese registered to vote, about 13.9 million voters voted during the election.
Three men contested to become the self-governed island’s next leader. These include William Lai Ching-te of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, Hou Yu-ih of the main opposition Kuomintang and Ko Wen-je of the Taiwan People’s Party.
After the vote, Lai Ching-te, the vice president at the time, won with 40.05% of the poll (5.58 million votes). Following the election results in Taiwan, the UK Foreign Secretary David Cameron congratulated Lai. In addition, he expressed hope that Taiwan and China would renew efforts to resolve their differences peacefully.
Taiwan’s Election: The Candidates
Lai, a member of the Democratic Progressive Party, is the most anti-China party in Taiwanese politics. His party supports Taiwanese independence. Consequently, he plans to increase defence spending and further boost ties with the United States.
However, Lai’s top competitor, Hou Yu-ih of the Kuomintang Party, is pro-China. He does not believe China should absorb Taiwan but that Taiwan should placate China through cooperation. Thus, for the Kuomintang (KMT), Taiwan’s main opposition party, the path to stability involves restarting dialogue with China through cultural and economic exchange.
Finally, Ko Wen-je, who represented the Taiwan People’s Party, believes there’s a way to meet China at the negotiation table. At the same time, he believes in securing Taiwan’s future by increasing defense spending. He doesn’t want Taiwan tied to China or the United States.
The China Factor
China wasn’t surprised by Lai Ching-te’s election as Taiwan’s next president. The polls had been indicating this outcome for a while.
China sees Taiwan as part of its territory. As a result, it despises the ruling DPP because it rejects its concept of ‘One China’ and seeks the island’s de-facto independence and a separate Taiwanese identity.
As such, When the DDP returned to power in 2016, with the election of President Tsai Ing-wen, China cut ties with the island. Instead, China stepped up its campaign of intimidation and pressure. In recent years, the Chinese military has increased its military maneuvers around Taiwan.
Also, China repeatedly violated Taiwan’s Air Defence Identification Zone with these incursions. Furthermore, it unilaterally abolished the median line, which previously acted as a barrier between both sides of the strait.
As a result, the number of Chinese planes crossing the “median line” of the Taiwan Strait between the two countries surged from 972 in 2021 to 1,703 in 2023.
Things worsened in 2022 when former US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taipei. In response, a furious Beijing staged massive military drills in the Taiwan Strait. With military pressure, China began economic coercion. In June 2022, China banned importing certain fish from Taiwan. However, it lifted the ban on Dec. 22, 2023.
The CCP also used diplomatic tools, which were also deployed, further restricting Taipei’s ability to represent itself on the world stage. China reacted to Lai’s victory by offering Nauru, one of the 13 countries that recognized Taiwan, $100 million annually if it severed ties with Taiwan and allied with China.
As numerous other nations have in recent years, Nauru yielded, leaving Taiwan with only 12 formal diplomatic partners. Taiwan had 22 when Tsai first took office in 2016).
Implications for UK-Taiwan Relations
The election of William Lai Ching-te carries significant implications for UK-Taiwan relations. The UK maintains unofficial ties with Taiwan, including trade, investment, education, and culture.
Taiwan is a major trading partner for the UK, with bilateral trade reaching 8.6 billion pounds ($10.56 billion) in 2022. Also, the UK & Taiwan, in November 2023, signed an Enhanced Trade Partnership agreement to boost trade.
Due to diplomatic isolation and pressure from China, Taiwan has few formal foreign trade agreements.
Thus, the Enhanced Trade Partnership will enable Taiwan to break out of isolation.
At the same time, as the UK seeks to expand its global trade network post-Brexit, developing stronger trade ties with Taiwan could provide new avenues for growth & investment.
Taiwan has also applied to join the 11-country Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, which the UK formally joined in July 2023.
Enhanced UK-Taiwan relations could lead to increased trade and investment opportunities. Already, Taiwan is a significant player in the global technology industry. However, the UK’s expertise includes finance, education, and creative industries. Thus, strong trade & economic ties will mutually benefit both sides.
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